Saudi Arabia expects a budget deficit of 190 billion riyals in 2027, equivalent to about 3.6 per cent of gross domestic product, according to the Pre-Budget Statement published by the Ministry of Finance of Saudi Arabia on 30 September. The statement puts 2027 revenues at 1,202 billion riyals and expenditures at 1,392 billion riyals.
The figures land against a contraction. Real gross domestic product fell 3.6 per cent in 2026, with the oil sector shrinking by about 21.8 per cent while non-oil activity grew 3.2 per cent. Non-oil activities reached 57.3 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2026.
The diversification thesis under load
Those two numbers together are the most important part of the document. A 21.8 per cent fall in oil output set against 3.2 per cent non-oil growth is the diversification programme being stress-tested in public, and the non-oil economy held while the oil economy did not. Non-oil revenues have risen from 166 billion riyals in 2015 to 505 billion riyals in 2025, which is the structural change the Kingdom has been building toward.
Inflation ran at about 2.1 per cent and Saudi unemployment stood at 6.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, per the General Authority for Statistics.
Spending through the shock
The medium-term projections are the clearest signal to boards and contractors. The ministry models 2029 revenues at about 1,351 billion riyals against expenditures of about 1,544 billion riyals, so the deficit is planned to persist rather than close. The state is choosing to keep funding its capital programme through the oil downturn and to finance the gap, rather than cutting spending to match receipts.
Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Minister of Finance, framed the estimates against continued global economic uncertainty and accelerating geopolitical developments, and presented the Pre-Budget Statement as a transparency commitment to citizens and investors.
For directors of Saudi listed companies and for contractors working on Vision 2030 programmes, the practical read is that project pipelines are not being withdrawn. Sustained sovereign issuance, rather than retrenchment, is the stated financing route, and that keeps the domestic capital market busy at the same time as it keeps the construction order book intact.
