KEY THEMES
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- 2026 to accelerate structural shifts in digital asset investing, which have been underpinned by two major themes: macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity. Together, these trends should bring in new capital, broaden adoption (especially among advised wealth and institutional investors), and bridge public blockchains more fully into mainstream financial infrastructure.
- As a result, rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called “four-year cycle,” or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern. Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year, in our view.
- Grayscale expects bipartisan crypto market structure legislation to become U.S. law in 2026. This will bring deeper integration between public blockchains and traditional finance, facilitate regulated trading of digital asset securities, and potentially allow for on-chain issuance by both startups and mature firms.
- The outlook for fiat currencies is increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can be highly confident that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026. Digital money systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum that offer transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply will be in rising demand, in our view, due to rising fiat currency risks.
- More crypto assets to be available through exchange-traded products in 2026. These vehicles have had a successful start, but many platforms are still conducting due diligence and working to incorporate crypto into their asset-allocation process. As this process matures, look for more slow-moving institutional capital to arrive throughout 2026.
- Top 10 Crypto Investing Themes for 2026, reflecting the breadth of use cases emerging across public blockchain technology. In each case we include the relevant crypto assets associated with each theme. They are:
- Dollar Debasement Risk Drives Demand for Monetary Alternatives
- Regulatory Clarity Supporting Adoption of Digital Assets
- Reach of Stablecoins to Grow in Wake of GENIUS Act
- Asset Tokenization at Inflection Point
- Privacy Solutions Needed as Blockchain Tech Goes Mainstream
- AI Centralization Calls for Blockchain Solutions
- DeFi Accelerates, Led by Lending
- Mainstream Adoption Will Demand Next-Generation Infrastructure
- A Focus on Sustainable Revenue
- Investors Seek Out Staking by Default
- Two topics that do not expect to influence crypto markets in 2026:
- Quantum computing: We believe that research and preparedness will continue on post-quantum cryptography, but this issue is unlikely to affect valuations in the next year.
- Digital asset treasuries: Despite their media attention, DATs will not be a major swing factor for digital asset markets in 2026.
